Navigating the 2025 Tariff Landscape: Key E-Commerce Trends and Holiday Strategies

New trade policies and tariffs are reshaping the e-commerce landscape in 2025, presenting significant challenges for online retailers. As these changes unfold, businesses must adapt to a complex environment where strategic planning and data-driven insights are more crucial than ever.  

The introduction of new tariffs has created a ripple effect across the retail industry, impacting everything from pricing strategies to consumer behavior. Leveraging affiliate and data-driven performance marketing strategies can help mitigate the impact of tariffs and provide a roadmap for success for Q4 2025 and beyond.  

In this article, we will examine the key findings from online consumer panel data and offer a comprehensive analysis of how these developments are influencing U.S. online retail. 

Widespread Pressure on Online Orders

One of the most pressing issues is the widespread downward pressure on online orders. The timeline of tariff announcements, notably on February 1 and May 14, has led to a noticeable decline in weekly order volumes compared to 2024. This trend highlights the immediate impact of tariff policies on consumer purchasing decisions.  

As tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, consumers are becoming more cautious, leading to a reduction in overall order volumes. Retailers are finding it increasingly difficult to maintain the same level of sales as in previous years, necessitating a reevaluation of their strategies to mitigate these effects. 

Actionable tips:

• Tap into Card-Linked-Offers. These partners can encourage in-store shopping through incentivized offers, driving consumers who are seeking deals online into the store to purchase their items.  

• Leverage in-store dynamic commissioning. Use cashback and reward partners to incentivize incremental behaviors (new customers, higher AOV, bundles) to drive online value while targeting in-store rewards to get customers shopping in-person. 

Unprecedented Price Increases in Key Categories

Another significant finding is the unprecedented price increases in key categories. The year-over-year change in Average Selling Price (ASP) is staggering, with Power & Hand Tools experiencing a 186% increase, Stuffed Animals & Plush up by 154%, Necklaces & Pendants rising by 94%, and Refrigerators seeing an 87% hike.  

These dramatic price shifts are a direct consequence of the tariffs, which have increased the cost of importing products, translating to higher costs for merchants on goods sold. Many retailers are choosing to pass these costs onto consumers, resulting in higher prices and potentially reduced demand. This scenario underscores the need for businesses to explore alternative sourcing strategies or consider absorbing some of the costs to remain competitive. 

Actionable tips:

• Shift towards content publications: Balance your partner mix with value-education publishers (review sites, buying guides) that can justify higher ASPs with side-by-side comparisons and “good/better/best” bundles to showcase your product’s value. 

• Buy-Now-Pay-Later: Introduce BNPL partners into your publisher mix to make the financial strain of price increases feel less staggering. For key holiday categories (toys, jewelry, and home improvement), breaking up purchases into several payments can help ease the burden of added cost to consumers.  

A Sector-by-Sector Analysis

Hard-Hit Goods

Apparel, Shoes, and Electronics are particularly vulnerable, with a noticeable downward trend in order volume. These sectors are heavily reliant on imports, making them more susceptible to tariff-induced price increases. 

The Travel Paradox

In contrast, the travel sector presents a paradox. While air travel bookings show resilience and growth, lodging experiences a decline.  In many cases, consumers tend to book airfare sequentially before lodging decisions, and this widening gap may indicate more discernment around lodging spend in 2H 2025. This divergence also suggests a shift in consumer priorities, possibly driven by a desire for experiences over material goods. 

Actionable tips:

• Post‑booking conversion. Retarget flight purchasers through affiliate partners with hotel value‑adds and flexible payment terms. 

• Experience‑led packaging. Partner with OTAs to bundle air, hotel, and activities, emphasizing perks over rate cuts to protect your bottom line. 

Signs of Stability

Meanwhile, the Health & Beauty category is beginning to stabilize, mirroring 2024 trends after a period of stagnation. This stability offers a glimmer of hope for retailers in this sector, indicating potential areas for growth. 

Actionable Tips:

• Capitalize on stability: For categories that are experiencing stability, lean into traditional affiliate strategies to drive the most revenue while the market is up.  

Going Forward: Your Holiday 2025 Marketing Blueprint

Despite the challenging environment, the holiday shopping season presents a significant opportunity for marketers, with buyer volume historically picking up in mid-October. To capitalize on this, marketing and media campaigns should be launched in early October to capture the first wave of demand.  

Leveraging strategic timing is crucial for maximizing sales during the holiday season. By aligning marketing efforts with consumer behavior patterns, retailers can effectively navigate the tariff landscape and drive sales growth. 

Want to learn how Rakuten Advertising can help you succeed this holiday season? Reach out today to speak with one of our seasoned experts. 

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Written by: David Gill, VP of Consumer Insights at Rakuten Advertising.

As Vice President of Consumer Insights, David helps clients understand their competitive performance, buyer behavior and market trends. Before Rakuten Advertising, David was Vice President at Nielsen where he forged key client relationships and led several innovative measurement initiatives with publishers and advertisers.  Through his experience working with both buyers and sellers of media and advertising, David has unique perspective and insight on the value and applicability of research, measurement, and data science.